PhD Case Studentship at Exeter University

How can we judge the relevance of climate science / models for policy
and decision making in society?

Postgraduate Studentship

A PhD Case Studentship at Exeter University, supported by Lloyds of
London and EPSRC

Title: Extracting Decision-Relevant Information from Climate Models for
the Insurance Industry

Complex climate models enable us to make projections of the possible
climatic consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions. Recent years have seen substantial effort to evaluate
uncertainty in these model based projections using large ensembles
of simulations such as those of climatepredictipon.net. How to usefully
interpret these ensembles, and indeed any climate model
simulations, remains a significant scientific question. It is a
critical question since the output of such simulations are being
used to examine the potential impacts at regional and even local
scales, and to guide adaptation decisions by policy makers in
government and industry.

The aim of this studentship is to view climate models from the
framework of nonlinear dynamical systems, and contrast the model
dynamics with the available observations, with the aim of identifying
the spatial and temporal scales at which the models can
“shadow” reality. This provides the prospect of objective
evaluation of the aspects of model simulations, on climate timescales,
which may be considered “realistic” under past conditions.

The research will involve:

    * Working at Lloyds to understand the vulnerabilities of the
insurance and re-insurance sectors to climate change.
    * Study of what constitutes valuable decision-relevant information
and the process by which climate models may provide such
information for the insurance industry.
    * Analysis of existing climate model datasets including those of
climateprediction.net.
    * Development of dynamical systems shadowing techniques, which
have been demonstrated on weather forecasting timescales, for
the study of climate and climate models.
    * Design of experimental methods which would facilitate the
application of such techniques, and thus the evaluation of a given
generation of climate models to simulate observations. [This design may
require novel computing methods such as those utilized by
climateprediction.net.]
    * Demonstration of such methods using a climate model of
intermediate complexity.
    * Providing guidance on the utilization of climate model output in
decision making.

The student will have the opportunity to develop skills in risk
analysis and the workings of the insurance industry, as well as
climate modeling and the statistical issues in its interpretation.

Applicants should have a 1st or 2:1 Honours degree, an MSc or
equivalent experience in a discipline such as statistics, physics,
mathematics or quantitative environmental science. Experience of
computational techniques, modeling, and programming would be an
advantage.

Informal enquiries are welcome and should be addressed to
d.stainforth1@physics.ox.ac.uk

Value of Award: Maintenance grant of £12,600 p.a. plus university fees
at the UK rate for 3 / 3.5 years. The maintenance grant is
only available to persons who have been resident in the UK for the last
three years.

Details are available from:
http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/postgraduate/funding_opportunities.shtml

Applicants should send a copy of their CV, with the names and addresses
of 2 referees, plus a statement outlining their academic
interests and their reasons for wishing to undertake this research
project to: Helen Pisarska (geog-pg-study@exeter.ac.uk).
Selection procedures will begin on 31st August 2007 and will continue
until the position is allocated.